Proposals for a 25 Years Plan Part 2

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PAUL G. MAGLOIRE POUR LA DECENTRALIZATION D'HAITI II - Estimated Costs of Plan 25 Years
(01-01-2008)
In the text distributed through the Internet in November 2007, establishing the principle of opening a general debate on a "Plan for the next 25 years" for the revival of Haiti, the largest number of comments we have been running on issues, namely how to estimate the costs of such a plan and what are the sources of funding.

Today, we dedicate ourselves to put the clues and show landmarks to guide the theoretical approach to estimate these costs viable.

Then, in a forthcoming text we will seek to identify funding sources dynamically.

Let us now focus on approaches to cost estimates.

1-D'abord a question of method and purpose
It is not too difficult to make a preliminary estimate for a large map. Because there are already standards in all areas of production and service in the country.

Thus, it is accepted that the average cost for one kilometer of road is approximately $ 1,000,000. Assuming the current cost to build 100 kilometers of road will cost approximately $ 100 million and have a grid road 900 kilometers, the equivalent of a network serving all parts of the republic, would cost approximately $ 900 million.

The Dominican Republic now has a road network stretching over 6224 kilometers, and passable at all seasons.

The cost of Megawatt of electricity is about $ 1 million also. At this cost should be added that of the distribution network.

It should target the amount of electricity produced in accordance with the level of other countries in the region, if we want to be competitive.

Our eastern neighbor has a current installed production capacity of about 1200 Megawatts to around 10 million inhabitants.

Given the losses on the networks by prevarication, we advocate for over 20 years for the adoption of a proportional system, without use of counter-metric, because prices are indexed by region and level of life, and all habitats (Building and Housing) depending on their size and function, will receive a certain number of kilowatt-hours per month, with the possibility of further use to market prices.

We were encouraged to test this system in some cities, and we find it has already delivered better results in terms of cost recovery compared to traditional application system.

That same level of drinking water.

The cost per gallon of water supply varies depending on supply and distribution, although the power of Port-au-Prince in drinking water tends to become increasingly expensive and even problematic, given the drying up of sources traditional supplies and rapid population growth of the capital.

This argues for a rational management of space in the country and a decentralized management framework that would break the limits of the monolithic central capital and the monstrosity that is the Republic of Port-au-Prince.

Preliminary estimates should take into account the variations and peculiarities of each sector, and also the scale of the needs of the population based on our capacity and indices of human development that we want to achieve in this period indicated the next 25 years.

This work will create jobs and increase the purchasing power of people who will pay for these goods and services.

It already pays through the transfer of diaspora and the humanitarian aid for approximately $ 1.3 billion of products coming from abroad.

Thus, the population is not hostile to pay for goods and services when they are available.

The country was much more a problem of supply.

But the demand is there.

Do not stop repeating the example of Digicel.

Thus, all sectors of production and services can be boosted, without risk of deflation, and first estimates for having an idea of the overall cost of the plan could be implemented fairly quickly.

Therefore, projections, if they are weighted with variables realistic, could provide an array of guidance, or Control Panel to see the fields of existing opportunities in terms of funding.

For example, at our company, we are working on a model to train 9000 youth per year in the maintenance and use of office equipment in order to establish a technological base to support programs production and services the company intends to launch as part of an effort to support the modernization of the country's municipalities.

We estimate the average cost per student trained in the program would be about $ 1000, so 9 million a year, roughly, to 9,000 students and $ 45 million over 5 years would be able to increase the working capacity of the majority of mayors and business production and service of his town halls.

Thus, from these preliminary data, we determined our needs and identified funding sources of funding for this program.

Thus, crossing this phase, it will make specific studies and evaluation of implementation for each program.

We must not lose sight of that important objective of a plan of 25 years would create about 100,000 jobs a year for young people entering working age, to give them a reason to hope and believe this country, Haiti.

And finally, gradually eliminate poverty and restore our country's sense of dignity.

Given the national importance of such a plan, it can not be the concern of a group or sector.

The commitment should be national, indeed.

But each of us should try to do his best to help. Each judge should consider how to provide the best possible conditions in the municipality for the establishment of productive enterprises.

Each member should also help define the needs of its constituency, taking into account the possibilities of its jurisdiction.

A Senator should seek to facilitate the integration plan in its region.

The parliament should, for its part, be involved in making the evaluation of existing laws and spend more to boost the implementation of this plan. Entrepreneurs and those who have business ideas should propose projects that would be able to advance this plan. Youth organizations, women's associations, professional associations, trade unions, cooperatives, and all the forces of the nation in the country and in the Diaspora have a role to play. And, of course, such a plan would not be possible without political will from the central government to change the process that is leading us toward the abyss, making the country depend more and more of the international aid and the domestic market as a spillway for products from abroad, and that, without showing any hope they will resume production to create jobs and wealth in the country.

This is unreasonable!
We must make estimates in determining the overall objectives and in terms of production and in terms of service achieved over a given period.

For example, if we said that in 25 years the country would reach the level of economic and social development of the Dominican Republic today, and would even better in some areas, it would mean that our effort to accelerate our economy should raise the average purchasing power now to the year of grace 2032 the order of $ 1800. 00 to $ 9500. 00 which is in some sense the level of purchasing power through the neighboring republic today.

This would require, as an effort to average growth of about 10% a year like Argentina, China People, and the Dominican Republic.

Why not?

And the nation should be mobilized to do so.
The overall objectives should set how many calories in our average diet should be made available per capita with the support of a production system and adequate service and sound management of our resources.

Objectives should be fixing the number of classes in schools would be built during this period, to receive a given number of students of all levels of training, taking into account that we should consider eliminating once and for all l illiteracy, if the program is under way would not lead to the full. This plan should democratize access to secondary education and technical, and even encourage the academic and scientific, if we want to build a state with modern production capacity and build a knowledge economy can help us cope the vagaries of globalization.

The plan should also establish ways and means to enable us to restore vegetation cover in the 25 years, has at least 20% of the total land area. Otherwise, we will eventually disappear.

This is true to say that if we choose to seriously make tourism a mainstay of our economy, we must anticipate how many hotel rooms we will build an average year, to accommodate the hundreds of thousands of visitors, as they managed to do it in less than 25 years in the neighboring republic.

It will also produce eggs for breakfast for our guests, bread, meat and foods of all kinds to provide meals every day without backordered.

Are we going to import all these products and ignore the wider section of the population that is able to work in agricultural production, the Haitian peasant, could produce much of these foods, so finally we decide to frame them and finance?

The accelerated growth of our economy does not mean we should forget the farmer who provides the bulk of the population.

This is where to ask, is that everything will be concentrated in Port-au-Prince and its surroundings, thereby making our condition worse than it is unhealthy, and thought to meet the challenge of becoming a tourist destination and even the ambition to compete with other tourist destinations in the region, while a real trash-open pit?

Among these overall objectives should include the construction of hospitals and emergency services equipped and the development of a significant number of hospital beds per capita.

For service modernization of health care has become an achievement to get to the emergence of a modern and democratic state in the country.

The number of kilowatt hours that we produce and the number of gallons of water per day that residents have at their disposal, should also be planned.

It must provide the number of homes to be built and the amount of space to adjust for the wholesale and retail, and hotel space for the displays of small retailers that will continue daily to seek their livelihood as they can and where they can, so they will not find jobs that allow them to live decently.

It would be rather better to make their presence attractive and useful to consider them as a footprint and try to get rid of what they would like no place.

Even the most modern cities in the world, from Paris to Manhattan, have storage facilities for street stalls daily.

And this is so, of course, that these areas provide a good complement to the aesthetic beauty of these cities.

Does the Town Councils have already asked our architects to find a solution to this problem?

Every problem is an opportunity for wealth creation.

There are a number of elements included in the list of indices of human development and most of these items should be on the list of goals if we really want to build a modern and balanced, according to contemporary standards.

And who knows, doing so could even reach the level of development of our neighbor in less time. It would be great, since most experts say such a leap would take us at least fifty years.

The miracle of Haiti is it still possible?

We must have the courage to think and work together, putting aside our differences.

For if we do not, the way things are going, it could take less than 25 years that we cease to exist as an independent nation.

And we would have nobody else to blame but ourselves.

So it is time to return to the fundamental values that gave birth to our nation.

It's time to revive Haiti.

Our Haiti.

Establish milestones
The short-term impact of the implementation of a plan of 25 years would create jobs and hope, especially for young people who form more than half the population, and also seek to maintain political stability in the country, hard-won. For the unemployed, almost generalized, can lead to anything, and this, anytime.

The launch of such a plan might first seek to achieve the Millennium in 2015, reducing poverty by 50%.

As we mobilize to reach this stage, we could start another effort to restore the full sovereignty of the country, eliminating the national budget for international assistance at all levels.

Finally, the third and final step would be establishing a modern state with all that that means today, that is to say, the functioning of an economy based largely on knowledge, and thus do our country, if not the Pearl of the Caribbean of yesteryear, at least one country where life is good.
These considerations show that the estimates on a map 25 years are not only financial.

We have to take into account also the efficiency of the state apparatus and all its constituent organizations, the ability of the labor force and executions represented by the skilled labor or not, and also the expertise of knowledge workers and technology available locally or in the diaspora, who have a role to play in the heart of this effort.

We will also assess the capacity of each sector to be involved in program implementation, and how to set up training modules for the upgrading of all sectors in relation to standards of performance.

The second step in the process of evaluating the plan would be to define the objectives to be achieved over relatively short periods for programs holders.

And there should be at the end of each period to be established, ongoing programs will be reassessed and adjusted according to the performance recorded to avoid drifts and changes that away too forecasting results.

These assessments could be made on cycles of 100 days, and would alternate between local, regional and central government, and published in the press for the construction of the general public, and reduce the risk of corruption.

Because bad habits and slip casting in our society will not disappear soon. So we must constantly seek to maintain honesty and respect for the common good.
As we said earlier, we can not know everything, but look at how masterfully what we do. Then he will have targeted growth sectors to avoid scattering our resources too and not get the optimization of multiplier effects.

For it is well established that the production and services in market economies are generally more efficient by focusing on the principle of scale.

Say, the more we produce, the less it costs.

But the production of scale, does not mean a production based on large equipment and structure of industrial production chain, only. Germany, one of the major world exporters, owes its success to networks of small producers.

Of course, Germany also has a long tradition of handicrafts and small trades.

We can consider intensifying production with the participation of cooperatives and producer associations, building on the talents of the Haitian.

There is an embryo of this system we could build fast enough.

In fact, providing adequate support to cooperatives and producer associations could resume production of eggs for the local market from networks of thousands of cages for laying hens near areas where there is strong demand for this product.

This system would be more flexible to adapt to market changes and deal with the import.

In record time, such a system can enable us to meet the demand of 30 million eggs that we import every month of the Dominican Republic.

Thus, an approach like this can we avoid conflict with the trend towards free trade and regional integration which are supported by international donors, as is the case, if we would return to an economic policy protection of local industry that has prevailed in the years 70-80 and, anyway, could not ensure our economic takeoff.

We must trust that our local producers will be able, if logistical support is available to stand up to foreign competition in our market, based on their own merit.

In sum, there is no great magic to have hens to lay eggs, and a little courage and determination to show our neighbors that they can not ignore the importance of our market economy.

This should serve as motivation as we absorb one third of their production, and thus they should show respect for customers back where they make their butter.

The free market system is all you want, except an act of charity, as they seem to think the other side of the border.

Then, a matter of national pride
In fact, the estimated cost of the plan is the responsibility of technical development planners that the country is fortunate to have in impressive numbers locally, then it should also appeal, for an appropriate program, to Haitians in the diaspora.

What is most needed initially is a very clear vision and measurable goals to be achieved over given periods.

This is the critical point where imagination must meet the technical and determining the selflessness and sense of patriotism.

For the execution of a plan of this magnitude will require enormous sacrifices so great we think we are more capable since the heroics of 1804 which for some could be a legend.

Paul G. Magloire, March 12 2010, 1:05 AM

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